U.S. Pursues Two-Stage Diplomatic Strategy Toward Iran

7/16/2008

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As Iran presses ahead with its illicit nuclear program, the Bush administration has agreed to pursue a new, two-staged diplomatic proposal, drafted by E.U. foreign policy chief Javier Solana, to persuade Iran to halt its uranium enrichment activity. 

In the first phase of the plan, which is slated to last six weeks, Iran could continue to enrich uranium, but could not expand its efforts beyond current levels. During this time, the two sides would work to hash out the contours of future negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program. The next phase would require Iran, as a prerequisite, to halt all nuclear work.

Diplomats Say Iran is Not Serious

To demonstrate its sincerity in reaching a diplomatic solution, the United States sent Undersecretary of State William Burns to a meeting in Geneva to discuss Solana’s proposal with Iranian negotiators. Burns was the highest-ranking American diplomat to meet with Iranian officials since relations were severed nearly three decades ago when 52 American diplomats were held hostage during the 444-day occupation of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran.

After the meeting, Burns reported to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who later told the media that, instead of a coherent answer to Solana’s proposal, Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili delivered a “meandering” monologue full of irrelevant “small talk about culture” that appeared to annoy many of the others present at the table in Geneva.

“We expected to hear an answer from the Iranians but, as has been the case so many times with the Iranians, what came through was not serious,” Rice said. “It’s time for the Iranians to give a serious answer.”

“They can’t go and stall and make small talk about culture, they have to make a decision,” she said. “People are tired of the Iranians and their stalling tactics.”

Iranian Defiance Spurs International Backlash

Iran’s refusal to meet U.N. Security Council demands that it stop its atomic work has been met with increased international sanctions and isolation.

French energy giant Total said this month that it would not develop a major natural gas project in the country’s South Pars gas field at this time—a significant blow to Iranian hopes for Western investment in its energy sector. In announcing the decision, which made Total the latest European major to delay its plans to invest in Iran, CEO Christophe de Margerie cited the growing international isolation of the Iranian regime over its illicit nuclear program.

Samuel Ciszuk, a Middle East energy expert, called Total’s decision “a death blow” for Iran’s liquid natural gas ambitions, as the country would be unable to attract adequate investment and knowledge for such complex projects. Unlike Total, companies from Russia and China that do invest in Iran lack the required technical capability to advance Iran’s liquefied natural gas ambitions.

Iran’s banking system has also taken a hit. Following America’s lead, the European Union has imposed sanctions on Bank Melli, Iran’s largest bank, for facilitating numerous purchases of sensitive materials for Iran’s nuclear and missile programs. The bank has reportedly lost a third of its total assets in the past two years.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury Department earlier this month sanctioned four Iranian firms and four individuals with ties to Tehran’s nuclear and missile programs. The move freezes any of the firms’ financial assets found in the United States and prohibits Americans from doing business with them.

Despite record high oil prices, Iran’s economy continues to struggle under the pressure of sanctions and the lack of foreign investment. Last fiscal year, Iran’s deficit climbed to more than $10 billion, and inflation in the country has spiked to 25 percent.

Time is of the Essence

Although Iran is feeling the impact of sanctions and international diplomatic pressure, the Islamic Republic is still rapidly pressing ahead with its efforts to develop a nuclear weapons capability.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad brushed aside U.S. diplomatic overtures, vowing that his country would not yield in its drive for a nuclear weapons capability. “You are mistaken if you think you can force this nation to back down with sanctions, threats and pressure,” he said.

Ahmadinejad’s statement comes on the heels of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Mohamed ElBaradei’s warning that, with Iran’s current nuclear capabilities, the country would need “six months to one year” in order to produce one atomic bomb. “It would need this period to produce a weapon, and to obtain highly enriched uranium in sufficient quantities for a single nuclear weapon,” ElBaradei said.

In addition, the IAEA has presented evidence that Iran has conducted studies on how to modify its Shihab-3 missile in order to accommodate a nuclear warhead. Tehran recently tested these long-range missiles, which can strike Israel, U.S. forces in the region and parts of Europe.

In light of Iran’s progress, the urgency of stopping Tehran’s nuclear program remains more imminent than ever.  •NER•

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